Weekend Film Forecast - 5/11/06

Okay, the 3 big releases this weekend are Poseidon, Just My Luck and Goal! The Dream Begins. No matter how it does, Poseidon will be the number one movie. It doesn't have any other big releases opening against it and with M:I:3 not living up to expectations last weekend, you'd be stupid to bet against Poseidon as the top film, although some people are. The big question is how big will it open. The other question is how much audience will M:I:3 lose.

Right now, Poseidon is opening on 3,355 screens, Just My Luck on 2,541 and Goal! on 1,007. M:I:3 will be keeping about the same amount of screens as last weekend at just over 4,000.


Poseidon: Gonna sink or swim?

So, Poseidon is the big movie this weekend. The forecast predictions have been really inconsistent and range anywhere from $20 million all the way up to $35 million - a pretty big gap. Well, I'm going to go out on a limb here and say it will do over $40 million and here's why. The last disaster movie to open in May was The Day After Tomorrow 2 years ago. It was on a few less screens than Poseidon is opening on and it did $68.7 in it's first weekend. Like Poseidon, it wasn't headlined by any A-List stars and it's trailer looked cooler than the actual movie was. Similarly, it was also pretty much a critic proof film for the opening weekend like Poseidon. Unlike Poseidon though, TDAT had much more competiton from other big releases that were in theatres at its point of release, but it had the advantage of being extremely well promoted and everyone was talking about it weeks before it opened because of its environmental themes. However, Poseidon has something that TDAT didn't have, a beloved original film that people still know, as well as an action director (Wolfgang Petersen) who has had major success with these types of watery movies (Das Boot, The Perfect Storm) and who's last 6 films have all been unqualified hits.

Since I think M:I:3 will take a bigger hit than some people expect this weekend, moviegoers are going to need to go see something (and it ain't gonna be the Lindsay Lohan flick, Just My Luck). Poseidon has a lot of appeal that many films don't have. It has plenty of action for the boys, plenty of heart for the girls, a major gay character (but nothing touchy feely that will turn off the straight boys) as well as fond memories of Shelly Winters in the original film for all the gays. As well, the commercials make the sinking ship look as cool as the Titantic boat stuff (with almost a decade spaced out since that film to minimize comparisons). Older moviegoers also have good memories of the original film and aren't going to be turned off by the idea of a loud action film since they liked the 70's version. It's also one of those films that most people won't be embarrased to buy a ticket to and that most people wouldn't protest going to go see if their partner/friends wanted to see it. I think it will do quite well. It won't do The Day After Tomorrow kind of numbers, but I sincerely think it will surprise everyone with a big opening - at least in the $40's range.


M:I:3: Is Tom in for a punishing weekend?

Part of that guess will also be because M:I:3 is gonna bomb bigger than expected. Most films of its type lose a little less than 50% of it's first weekend. That means that most of the estimates for it this weekend have been in the high $20's. I'm thinking more like low $20's - about a 60% drop off, not 50%. Why? Because the press and blogs have been so mean this week about the film's bad opening as well as I think that most of those who wanted to see it have now seen it already. I just can't imagine that it won't take a big hit this weekend. People are tired of, and still want to punish, Tom Cruise and this is how they will do it.


Just My Luck: Is Lindsay out of luck?

Speaking of tired and punishing, Lindasy Lohan's Rom-Com Just My Luck will need all the luck it can get. Her last film, Herbie The Love Bug, opened at about $12 million and I think this one will do a little less. It has no real kid appeal and no real adult appeal either - just teens that are getting burnt out on her by now. The forecast for the film is around $13, but I think it will easily go below the $10 million mark.


Goal! The Dream Begins: Is Goal gonna score?

Goal! The Dream Begins is a soccer movie with little publicity, no real stars and the worst title since Dreamer: Inspired By A True Story from last year. The thinking is that Goal! will take in about $3 million and I think that is probably pretty accurate.

So here is my official forecast:

Poseidon - $42 million
M:I:3 - $23 million
Just My Luck - $8 million
Goal! The Dream Begins - $3 million

I'll update with the actual results on Sunday.