1. The Da Vinci Code - $77.0 (1st Week)
2. Over The Hedge - $37.2 (1st Week)
3. Mission: Impossible III - $11.0 ($103.2 - 3 Weeks)
4. Poseidon - $9.2 ($36.8 - 2 Weeks)
5. RV - $5.1 ($50.4 - 4 Weeks)
6. See No Evil - $4.4 (1st Week)
7. Just My Luck - $3.4 ($10.5 - 2 Weeks)
8. An American Haunting - $1.7 ($13.6 - 3 Weeks)
9. United 93 - $1.4 ($28.3 - 4 Weeks)
10. Akeelah And The Bee - $1.0 ($15.7 - 4 Weeks)
Well, I was waaay off. JM's 5/19 Weekend Forecast I originally said a $58 Million opening for The Da Vinci Code due to all the horrible reviews, but lovers of Dan Brown's book seemed to close their ears and head to the theatre anyway. I did a review of the film and did update my prediction by Friday evening after I had seen the film, due to the packed afternoon theatre I was in and all the sold out evening shows on the board. JM's Da Vinci Code Review My revised estimate of around $80 Million was a lot closer, but that prediction doesn't count. Despite its huge opening though, I do predict a considerable amount of fall off next week. With its lack of action and X-Men 3 opening next weekend, I can't figure how Da Vinci can hold on to more than 50% of this weekend's audience (that is if you don't factor in the extra day of the long weekend due to Memorial Day).
As far as the number 2 opening, Over The Hedge, I overestimated its weekend take considerably. I really thought it was going to be great counter programming to Da Vinci. It did good business that was a lot closer to the studio's forecast of $35 Million instead. My guess of $46 Million was off, but it does have a better chance of holding onto an audience next weekend than Da Vinci does since its one of the few family films out there and will continue to be for a few more weeks. The long 3 day holiday weekend with kids out of school will also help it.
I also overestimated the returns for See No Evil. It was considerably lower than my guess of $11 Million and continues the decline of horror films this year. Most of them have been big disappointments and this one was no different. I guess Da Vinci's audience was spread over all age ranges and demographics and stole everyone's thunder this weekend. I've learned my lesson, never underestimate the power of massively popular controversial books and the stupid religious based protests that always precede the movie version's release. With The Da Vinci Code's massive success this weekend, I now can't wait for the release of Salman Rushdie's Satanic Verses starring Keanu Reeves and Lindsay Lohan.
Next week is the 3 day Memorial Holiday weekend and official opening of the Summer movie season, but only one major film will be released, X-Men 3: The Last Stand. Unless the reviews are horrific, this one ought to be a little easier to guess. I'll have my forecast up by Friday.
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