Impossible to hit $60 Million?
So Mission: Impossible III comes out today and domestic box office forecasts for the film are pretty high. The movie studio is anticipating a return from the weekend that is in the low to mid 60's*. Considering that the film is opening in over 4,000 theatres, this weekend is the official start of the Summer movie season and it's the third film in a wildly popular action series starring one of the world's biggest movie stars, it seems like a pretty safe guess. What the movie studio didn't take into consideration when they originally greenlighted the film was that their big movie star would go off the deep end and become such an unlikable and eratic public relations nightmare.
When the second film opened on Memorial Day weekend 2000, it was released in about 3,600 theatres and got a 5 day rollout. It made $57.8 million for the 3 day weekend and about $20 million more when you added in the extra 2 days (Wed. & Thurs.). So, over $60 million seems like a reasonable estimate for this third film in the franchise, but I think Tom Cruise and his bad publicity is more of a hindrance than a help right now for the film. The movie will open well, but I really believe it will be way under the forecast because he's so batshit crazy and everyone knows it. There are so many people freaked out by Cruise's freakouts, his bizarre public embracing of Scientology (where in the past he's kept it on the down low), his obviously fake relationship with Katie... woops... I meant (child bearing woman) Kate Holmes and his non stop barrage of bad press, that I think it's really going to hurt the film. My estimate is in the low $50's instead.
Whoot's gonna make a lot of money?
One of the other reasons that I think it's going to do worse than expected this weekend is that there are a few films opening that are being underestimated and could definitely take a bite out of M:I:3. One is Hoot (opening on over 3,000 theatres) and the other is An American Haunting (in almost 1,700 theatres). With the continued good performance of RV and Stick It, I think M:I:3 could lose some of its family, teen and twenty something audience to them.
Here's why. Hoot is a film based on a very popular young adult book by Carl Hiaasen about some kids who rally a community of people to save a family of owls from evil developers. Hardly sounds like a big box office bohemoth, but when you take into account that the book has sold almost 2 million copies since it's 2002 release and New Line has been promoting the Hell out of the film, it could definitely be an M:I:3 spoiler. It doesn't help that Hoot is the only major family film in the past month that has been released with a PG rating. There will be a lot of families that will take their kids to see it which will keep them and their parents out of M:I:3 theatres the first weekend. Forecasts for Hoot are running around $9 million, but I think it could do almost double that number.
Scaring away some of the M:I:3 audience?
And horror is still hot (Silent Hill anyone?) which is a good omen for the opening of An American Haunting which may keep some of the older teen and twenty something audience away from Cruise's movie as well. These types of horror films are notorious for having surprisingly large opening weekends, even if most of them fall off significantly on the 2nd weekend and that's not good for M:I:3 since they share many of the same potential customers. The An American Haunting forecast is around $6 million, but I think it will at least hit $10.
So here's my estimate of the weekend box office for the major new films being released:
Mission: Impossible 3 - $51 Million
Hoot - $17 Million
An American Haunting - $11 Million
I'll be back on Sunday with the actual numbers to evaluate my performance.
*All estimations are in the millions.
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