Weekend Box Office Forecast - 5/19/06

I doubt you've heard of it because it's from a pretty obscure book, but there's a small independent film being released this weekend called The Da Vinci Code. It stars some unknown actors, is directed by a newbie and hasn't gotten much publicity, so I doubt it will get much of a reception at the box office this weekend...

Okay, I am out of my fantasy world right now. We've all heard the nonstop chatter about the film for months and it is now here. However, what was supposed to be a bullet proof opening for this potential blockbuster has now become a guessing game as to the opening weekend numbers since its horrible reception in Cannes this week. Critics have been brutal and pre-screenings have left some pretty dismal marks and word of mouth from the regular moviegoers who've seen it. So will that effect it? I think so. Originally, there was talk of the film being close to the 100 million mark, but that looks extremely unlikely now. It's opening today on 3,735 screens domestically and is now being forecast at around a 70 Million opening. I'm willing to go lower. I'm thinking its opening will be closer to the high 50's. Tom Hanks' star has been on the decline for a while now and Ron Howard's last film, Cinderella Man, way underperformed at the box office despite big stars and critical raves. Da Vinci has the wildly popular book as its main promotion, but after all the critical bashing, a lot of people are not going to want to see their beloved book ruined.


Will this code crack 70 Million?

The other big film this weekend is the Dreamworks animated tale, Over The Hedge. Dreamworks has had great success with animation and this one has got lots of big stars voicing the funny (and not too childish) animal characters. Since Ice Age 2 has now melted out of theatres, I think this movie could do really well as counter programming to Da Vinci. Estimates put it at around the high 30's on its 4,059 domestic screens. I'm thinking more like high 40 's though.


Will this movie jump over the 40 Million mark this weekend?

The last big release this weekend is See No Evil, starring WWE wrestler, Kane. It's a horror movie with very scary commercials promising lots of gore. Most estimates have it at around 4 Million for the weekend on 1,257 screens. I think they are way off. An American Haunting opened a few weeks ago on fewer screens and took in over 6 Million. That movie looked boring compared to this one and this one has wrestling fans to add to the horror audience that normally sees this type of film. I'm thinking it will probably do over 10 Million.


Will audiences see this evil?

Here's my official forecast:

The Da Vinci Code - $58.0
Over The Hedge - $46.0
See No Evil - $11.0

So, we'll see how I do when the results come out on Sunday. I'm off to see The Da Vinci Code right now, so I'll post my own review later this evening.